El Niño is already active and continues to strengthen. The phenomenon corresponds to the warm phase of a natural ocean-atmosphere cycle in the equatorial Pacific that can alter temperature and rainfall patterns across different regions. The latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), published on September 10, maintains a probability of more than 90% that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-2027.

In addition, for the October-December 2026 period, NOAA estimates a 75% probability of an event exceeding the intensity of previous El Niño episodes recorded since 1950, considering a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.5 °C or higher. NOAA notes that an event of this magnitude increases the likelihood of El Niño-related impacts, although these are not guaranteed.

For Chile’s fruit industry, the key variable is not simply how much rain may fall, but when, where and at what stage of crop development that rainfall occurs. The latest seasonal forecast from the Chilean Meteorological Directorate, for September-October-November, projects above-normal rainfall from the Coquimbo Region through Los Ríos. In terms of temperatures, below-normal maximum temperatures are expected across much of central and southern Chile.

These conditions could affect the upcoming season in different ways. A spring with low temperatures in certain areas may lead to less uniform budding, flowering and fruit set, causing fruit to ripen at different times and extending harvest periods. If rainfall coincides with advanced stages of maturity, it may also affect the quality and harvesting pace of certain categories.

What could change in fruit availability

Raspberries and blackberries are among the most sensitive fruits when rainfall coincides with advanced stages of maturity, as they require rapid harvesting and processing to preserve their condition. In strawberries, rainfall may mainly affect overripe fruit, while the crop can subsequently produce firm fruit again in later cycles.

Blueberries present a different scenario. Rainfall during harvest may affect the suitability of part of the fresh fruit for extended transit times, potentially shifting the balance between fresh and frozen market destinations.

For our customers, these situations could translate into more staggered availability throughout the season and variations across categories, growing areas and end markets. That is why, in addition to monitoring volumes, we are closely tracking harvest windows, fruit condition and our ability to respond quickly as conditions change in the field.

At the same time, the current water outlook shows positive signs in terms of water storage. As of September 7, the 25 reservoirs monitored by Chile’s General Directorate of Water held 6.956 billion m³, 22.57% more than in September 2025. In the Maule Region, the five monitored reservoirs were at a combined 77% of capacity, while Coihueco reservoir in Ñuble also stood at 77%. In terms of rainfall, the outlook is more mixed: in the central macrozone, 13 of the 29 monitoring stations recorded a surplus compared with the historical average, while in the southern macrozone, 10 of the 22 representative stations recorded a surplus.

These figures provide a stronger starting point for the season in terms of water availability, although they do not make it possible to determine today how much water will be available for irrigation throughout the summer. This will depend on rainfall, snow accumulation, snowmelt and the specific conditions of each watershed.

How we are preparing

Against this backdrop, at Nutrisco we are working to build greater flexibility into both fruit sourcing and processing.

One of our key priorities is strengthening phytosanitary programs together with growers, defining preventive and response strategies for potential rainfall events. This includes preparing the necessary post-rain applications to reduce the risk of fungal diseases and, when forecasts allow, bringing forward the harvest of ripe or overripe fruit ahead of incoming weather systems.

We are also reviewing our equipment, freezing tunnels and processes to respond to higher volumes arriving within shorter periods. For products such as blueberries, we are assessing temporary storage alternatives that will allow us to better manage intake and prioritize the processing of more sensitive fruits, including raspberries and blackberries.

We are also supported by a sourcing network distributed across different areas of central and southern Chile. At Nutrisco, we work with growers located in regions with different climate conditions, providing geographic diversification that helps reduce exposure to localized events and gives us access to different sourcing alternatives as the season progresses.

This work is complemented by a strengthened agricultural team and technical support throughout the pre-season and harvest, allowing us to work alongside our growers to assess how best to respond to the conditions that actually develop in the field.

In a season expected to bring greater variability, our goal is not to predict exactly how the climate will behave, but to have different alternatives in place to adapt as conditions evolve, protect fruit quality, and maintain the greatest possible level of continuity and flexibility for our customers and markets.